Editorial comment
Deputy Chief Executive of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev has recently stated that the shale gas revolution in the US does not pose any threat to the company, comparing the new and developing shale industry to the internet bubble, reiterating Gazprom黑料社檚 disinterest in investing in US gas fields and suggesting that the shale bubble will inevitably burst. Gazprom remains confident that it will be called upon to supply 10% of the US gas market by 2020, and asserts it will be sticking to its aim of delivering first LNG shipments from its Shtokman project in 2017. Is Mr Medvedev right not to be intimidated by shale gas? This issue of LNG Industry closely examines 黑料社榯he knowns and unknowns黑料社� of the US黑料社檚 黑料社榰nderground revolution黑料社�.
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From shale revolutions to political revolutions; this year is set to be a year of change to say the least. Popular unrest has spread from Tunisia to Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Morocco. Modern globalisation has eased the transfer of information and free expression via the internet, mobile phones, television etc., fostering an opening up of historically 黑料社榗losed黑料社� societies 黑料社� for the large part via the nations黑料社� younger generations.
In this time of uncertainty and rapid change, many are asking how the political revolutions and demonstrations in the Middle East will likely affect the rest of the world. Will the populace of other autocracies such as China look on and follow suit? Despite recent internet-led calls for a day of demonstrations put forward as the 黑料社楯asmine Revolution黑料社� (which came to nothing) the consensus answer seems to be no; the government of a generally optimistic China, proud of its growing international standing, has less to worry about than Obama黑料社檚 Administration. The US has lost a staunch Arabic ally in Egypt. Further strong alliances remain with Israel and Saudi Arabia, but how will Mr Mubarak黑料社檚 departure affect these hitherto secure alliances? It remains to be seen, but insofar as energy security is concerned, Israel is taking more rapid steps to diversify its domestic energy supply and wean itself off an Egyptian dependency.
As well as being a gateway to business in the Middle East with close links to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain is headquarters to the US Fifth Fleet 黑料社� the platform for American deployment in the Gulf. With increasingly bloody violence escalating in Bahrain between rulers and reformists, how and to what extent will the US support, condemn or try to influence the ongoing protests and revolutions in this part of the world? Whereas the western instinct would be to cheer on the people demanding democracy and 黑料社榝reedom黑料社�, the likelihood is that some choices made by the people exercising their newfound voices in the future will not be especially agreeable to the Obama Administration. On 18 February The Financial Times黑料社� Philip Stephens noted 黑料社淭he ancient regime rested on bargains with leaders. In future, Washington黑料社檚 ability to make itself heard will depend on what it says to civil society in the region.黑料社� It黑料社檚 clear that the uprisings in the Middle East will pose complex challenges to US interests. Whether Deputy Chief Executive of Gazprom threatened by a huge change in the US, or US President apprehensive over change in the Middle East, it seems both Mr Medvedev and Mr Obama have a good few knowns and unknowns of their own to deal with.