黑料社

Globally, 2012 was a year of great change and challenge and there is no doubt that this was reflected in the coal sector. As聽we enter 2013, jobs and the economy remain key concerns in the US and around the world, yet the long-term fundamentals for coal remain strong. BP黑料社檚 厂迟补迟颈蝉迟颈肠补濒听搁别惫颈别飞听辞蹿听奥辞谤濒诲听贰苍别谤驳测听2012 showed that coal consumption grew by 5.4% in 2011, the only fossil fuel to record above-average growth. Coal now accounts for over 30% of global energy consumption, the highest share since 1969. Consultants Wood聽Mackenzie project that coal will overtake oil as the world黑料社檚 largest energy source this year.

Global demand growing

Global demand for coal continues to grow - and the seaborne market for coal is expanding rapidly. Over the next five聽years, Peabody聽Energy projects that global demand for coal will grow by 1.3聽billion聽short聽t (1.18聽billion聽t), with China and India driving the lion黑料社檚 share of that increase. This is comprised of more than 1聽billion聽short聽t (907聽million聽t) of new thermal coal demand to support over 395聽GW of new generation. Over the same time frame, we see some 200聽million聽short聽t (181聽million聽t) of additional metallurgical coal demand to聽serve estimated steel production growth of 20%. We are already seeing new power and steel plants in China and India being built along the coast to accommodate the demand centres and enable greater imports.

China黑料社檚 coal imports have grown dramatically over the last several years, and are projected to double between 2011 黑料社� 2016. Under its current policies scenario, the International聽Energy聽Agency (IEA) projects that coal will represent 68% of China黑料社檚 electricity generation by 2020. In India meanwhile, large-scale blackouts have highlighted the country黑料社檚 need for greater coal-fired power generation along all aspects of the value chain. Nearly 70聽GW of coal plants are expected to come online in the next five聽years, requiring about 250聽million聽short聽t (227聽million聽t) of added coal as these plants move to full utilisation, much of which may come from imports. India also has US$聽1聽trillion in infrastructure needs in its five-year聽plan, requiring both steel and power to put into place.

Providing energy, economic and environmental solutions

Energy access is a human right and a rapidly rising need. More than half the world黑料社檚 population still lacks proper energy access and 1.3聽billion聽people have no access at all. We lose a staggering 1.5聽million聽people to the effects of energy poverty each year.

According to the UN Development Programme黑料社檚 Human聽Development聽Report, every tenfold increase in electricity is linked to a 10聽year increase in longevity, with a better standard of living, higher literacy and a much healthier population. In its 奥辞谤濒诲听贰苍别谤驳测听翱耻迟濒辞辞办听2011, the IEA also shows a near perfect correlation between expanding coal use and growing economies. Broad聽energy access to reduce global poverty is Peabody黑料社檚 top priority and coal remains the only sustainable fuel with the scale to achieve our energy access goal.

Greater deployment of clean coal technology is the key to achieving what we at Peabody call the 黑料社�3Es黑料社�: energy, economic and environmental solutions. Last year, as chairman of the National聽Mining聽Association (NMA), I took part in MINExpo聽INTERNATIONAL^庐聽2012, an event held every four聽years to showcase the state-of-the-art technologies being used right across the industry. MINExpo聽2012 represented the largest single international assembly of mining equipment in history and its sheer scale was a testament to the cutting-edge advances that have made mining safer, more productive and more efficient than ever before. Many of the mining sector黑料社檚 best technologies are being deployed to ensure coal黑料社檚 sustainable future.

As the world increases its use of coal, Peabody is investing in, and advancing, clean coal solutions that will help us to achieve our goal of near-zero emissions. A聽major step on the path to near-zero emissions from coal is deployment of supercritical technology. These plants are highly efficient and low emissions. Even their CO₂ emissions rate is as much as 40% below the oldest plants, and some 429聽GW of these plants are in operation or construction worldwide. China leads this effort, representing more than a third of the world黑料社檚 advanced generation. Peabody is the only non-Chinese equity partner in China黑料社檚 low-carbon GreenGen project, currently undergoing commissioning. Once completed, GreenGen will be the world黑料社檚 largest near-zero emissions coal plant with carbon capture at full build of 650聽MW.

A global supercritical programme would create a major reindustrialisation, delivering significant economic returns, while helping us to achieve our global environmental goals. According to the IEA and Peabody analysis, the annual benefit of operating 1000聽GW of green coal plants would include a US$聽470聽billion increase to economic output, a US$聽170聽billion boost to personal income, US$聽89聽billion in tax revenues and 1.4聽million聽jobs for plant operation and supply chain contributions. The addition of these advanced plants provides a stable, long-lived, affordable source of electricity around the world.

Globally, we will continue to count on coal and, despite the challenges of 2012, as we enter a new year there is much for the sector to be thankful for - and much to look forward to. As emerging nations continue their extraordinary development journey in the decades to come, coal is the commodity that will provide both the energy needed to power new cities and the steel used to build them.

Author

Gregory聽H.聽Boyce is chairman and CEO of Peabody聽Energy. Peabody聽is the world黑料社檚 largest private-sector coal company and a global leader in sustainable mining and clean coal solutions. The聽company serves metallurgical and thermal coal customers in more than 25聽countries on six聽continents.

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